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Bjarne: Crude oil comment – Physical crude weakness_in_the_shoulder_months_soon_to_end : 2017-04-21

Råvaror: Olja, guld mm


Ikon analys

Crude oil comment ? Physical crude weakness in the shoulder months soon to end

The spread between the Brent crude dated price and the front month Brent contract has been on a steady tightening path since early November last year. In 2015 the spread averaged -$1.4/b, in 2016 it averaged -$1/b and year to date it has averaged -$0.6/b with a steady tightening trend. Since early April however the spread has deepened to -$0.9/b and at times traded lower than -$1/b in a sign of surplus crude oil in the oil market. This does have an impact on the market. It does give an impression of a growing surplus of weakening fundamentals. And as such it has helped to catalyze the sell-off in crude oil prices this week. However we do believe that the weakness is more a sign of shoulder month dynamics and refinery maintenance rather than a sign of a growing surplus. At the start of the year the body of global refineries out for maintenance stood at 18 mb/d versus an average of 19.4 mb/d on average for 2016. Since the start of February the outage has averaged 23 mb/d and rose to a recent peak of 24.7 mb/d of maintenance in early April. This naturally leads to much less crude oil processing which again leads to a temporary surplus of crude oil and a comparable deficit in products. This should naturally lead to improving refining margins for the refineries which are still refining and that is exactly what we see. The European spot refining crack margin last year averaged $3/b per processed barrel of crude. Year to date it has averaged $4.3/b. Since the start of April it has averaged $5.3/b and now it stands at $6/b. Clearly refineries are out, margins are up, product supplies are tightening, crude fundamentals are weakening. And there you are, shoulder months weakness. In the mid between winter and summer demand. It often creates a lot of uncertainties about the fundamental situation and thus fluctuating prices.

 

However, if we look at inventories of both crude and products (in available weekly data) there has been a steady decline since mid-February. US crude + disstillates + gasoline stocks have declined 29 mb or 3.2 mb/week since mid February. Inventories in global weekly data have declined 26 mb since mid-February with an average decline of 2.6 mb/week. Now refineries are moving back on line after maintenance. The IEA expects global refinery crude oil demand to surge by 3.5 mb/d from March to July primarily driven by rising refinery activity in the Atlantic Basin and the Middle East. Thus we do expect the current crude oil weakness to be transitory and thus that the current depressed dated Brent spot price versus the 1mth Brent crude oil contract to firm in not too long. Actually, the body of refineries out for maintenance seems to be falling fast according to Bloomberg data.

 

Ahead we have the OPEC meeting in Vienna on May 25th. In general we do not expect OPEC to roll over H1-17 cuts into H2 since we don?t see a need for it and since we also think it creates a risk for yet more stimulus of the US shale oil sector which might make it more difficult for OPEC to re-enter the market again with its full volume at a later stage. That is of course unless declines in non-OPEC, non-US shale makes increasing room for such a re-entry of OPEC supplies at a later stage. We do think that that will actually be the case in 2019. We do however expect OPEC to come out with a coherent message. To appear as a unified group. Also, we do think that the message from OPEC will be a reasurance that they will not flood the market with crude oil with no limit and no controll of the situation. That is the assurance the market needs in order to avoid sub-$50/b Brent crude oil prices in H2-17.

 

We think it is a good idea to buy into the current sell-off and sit long into the refinery revival and likely tightening crude oil market which that will lead to. Also in just over a months time we?ll have the OPEC meeting. The market may trade cautiously ahead of the meeting in case the message from the meeting is a total dissapointment with dissintegration of cooperation. However, a relief rally is likely post the meeting as OPEC is likely to come out with some kind of reasuring message if not direct cuts so at least some tempered production stand. The current sell-off could however continue further down towards the $50/b line as net long specultive positions are still elevated with investors taking cover against what appears as weak crude fundamentals as well as uncertain OPEC meeting ahead.

 

Ch1: Global refinery maintenance probably peaked in early April

Refineries are now moving back into operation with crude oil processing surging 3.5 mb/d from March to July according to IEA projections

 

Ch2: European refining margins hitting $6/b as global refining is currently reduced

Likely to fall back again as refining activity revives

 

Ch3: Deepening discount for Dated Brent crude versus Brent crude 1 mth contract

As crude fundamentals weakened as refineries refined less due to maintenance

 

Ch4: The spread was on average zero until the market ran into solid, global surplus of crude in mid-2014 onwards

Has been trending towards a discount of only -$0.6/b in Q1-17 but has now recently expanded again towards -$1/b

 

Ch5: As far as we can see crude oil on ships in transit (or standing still) is not really bloated

Rather this amount has been declining some 50 million barrels since a peak of more than 200 mb in mid-March

 

Ch6: At least Iran?s floating storage volume now seems to have been drawn down to zero

The constant draining of this volume has most likely been a bearish oil market factor during the draining period. No more.

 

Ch6: US crude + gasoline + distillate stocks in solid, steady decline since mid-February declining 29 mb

 

Ch5 ? This is also reflected in global weekly inventory data

 

Ch6: Strongly reviving US crude production is of course a headache for the market

In its April edition of the Short Term Energy Outlook the EIA projects US production to hit 9.6 mb/d (the previous peak) in Nov/Dec 2017.

In its March report the IEA projected that this would happen in Feb 2018

Thus continued on-boarding of US shale oil rigs continues to shift the crossover date for previous peak revisit closer and closer in time.

SEB estimates are that this will happen already in October 2017. The linear trend in the weekly data however points to June/July.

 

Ch7: Crude oil spot prices currently low partly due front end contango

Reduction of front end contango alone will help to lift the Brent crude 1mth contract

Kind regards Bjarne Schieldrop Chief analyst, Commodities SEB Markets









SE Banken

Dessa rekommendationer skall inte ses som någon modellportfölj utan som generella riktlinjer i aktier som givit tekniska signaler. Hur man vill använda dessa signaler är upp till var och en. Några av er läsare kanske bara har en portfölj med innehav och använder köpsignalerna till att köpa och säljsignalerna till att ta hem vinst. Andra kanske använder signalerna som underlag för trading med både köp och blankning. En annan strategi är att försöka bedöma vart OMX-index är på väg och sedan favorisera signaler i samma riktning. Alla har olika uppfattningar om var börsen är på väg. Av denna förklaring försöker vi komma med publikationer innehållandes säljsignaler även om vi själva tror att börsen är på väg upp, och vice versa.

Disclaimer Axiers publikationer skall endast ses som generella kommentarer om marknaden och inte som rekommendationer att köpa eller sälja finansiella värdepapper. Axier tar inte ansvar för varken direkta eller indirekta finansiella skador som uppstår vid användning av dessa publikationer.

Analyser av Index

Bjarne: Crude oil comment – Physical crude weakness_in_the_shoulder_months_soon_to_end : 2017-04-21

Råvaror: Olja, guld mm


Ikon analys

Crude oil comment ? Physical crude weakness in the shoulder months soon to end

The spread between the Brent crude dated price and the front month Brent contract has been on a steady tightening path since early November last year. In 2015 the spread averaged -$1.4/b, in 2016 it averaged -$1/b and year to date it has averaged -$0.6/b with a steady tightening trend. Since early April however the spread has deepened to -$0.9/b and at times traded lower than -$1/b in a sign of surplus crude oil in the oil market. This does have an impact on the market. It does give an impression of a growing surplus of weakening fundamentals. And as such it has helped to catalyze the sell-off in crude oil prices this week. However we do believe that the weakness is more a sign of shoulder month dynamics and refinery maintenance rather than a sign of a growing surplus. At the start of the year the body of global refineries out for maintenance stood at 18 mb/d versus an average of 19.4 mb/d on average for 2016. Since the start of February the outage has averaged 23 mb/d and rose to a recent peak of 24.7 mb/d of maintenance in early April. This naturally leads to much less crude oil processing which again leads to a temporary surplus of crude oil and a comparable deficit in products. This should naturally lead to improving refining margins for the refineries which are still refining and that is exactly what we see. The European spot refining crack margin last year averaged $3/b per processed barrel of crude. Year to date it has averaged $4.3/b. Since the start of April it has averaged $5.3/b and now it stands at $6/b. Clearly refineries are out, margins are up, product supplies are tightening, crude fundamentals are weakening. And there you are, shoulder months weakness. In the mid between winter and summer demand. It often creates a lot of uncertainties about the fundamental situation and thus fluctuating prices.

 

However, if we look at inventories of both crude and products (in available weekly data) there has been a steady decline since mid-February. US crude + disstillates + gasoline stocks have declined 29 mb or 3.2 mb/week since mid February. Inventories in global weekly data have declined 26 mb since mid-February with an average decline of 2.6 mb/week. Now refineries are moving back on line after maintenance. The IEA expects global refinery crude oil demand to surge by 3.5 mb/d from March to July primarily driven by rising refinery activity in the Atlantic Basin and the Middle East. Thus we do expect the current crude oil weakness to be transitory and thus that the current depressed dated Brent spot price versus the 1mth Brent crude oil contract to firm in not too long. Actually, the body of refineries out for maintenance seems to be falling fast according to Bloomberg data.

 

Ahead we have the OPEC meeting in Vienna on May 25th. In general we do not expect OPEC to roll over H1-17 cuts into H2 since we don?t see a need for it and since we also think it creates a risk for yet more stimulus of the US shale oil sector which might make it more difficult for OPEC to re-enter the market again with its full volume at a later stage. That is of course unless declines in non-OPEC, non-US shale makes increasing room for such a re-entry of OPEC supplies at a later stage. We do think that that will actually be the case in 2019. We do however expect OPEC to come out with a coherent message. To appear as a unified group. Also, we do think that the message from OPEC will be a reasurance that they will not flood the market with crude oil with no limit and no controll of the situation. That is the assurance the market needs in order to avoid sub-$50/b Brent crude oil prices in H2-17.

 

We think it is a good idea to buy into the current sell-off and sit long into the refinery revival and likely tightening crude oil market which that will lead to. Also in just over a months time we?ll have the OPEC meeting. The market may trade cautiously ahead of the meeting in case the message from the meeting is a total dissapointment with dissintegration of cooperation. However, a relief rally is likely post the meeting as OPEC is likely to come out with some kind of reasuring message if not direct cuts so at least some tempered production stand. The current sell-off could however continue further down towards the $50/b line as net long specultive positions are still elevated with investors taking cover against what appears as weak crude fundamentals as well as uncertain OPEC meeting ahead.

 

Ch1: Global refinery maintenance probably peaked in early April

Refineries are now moving back into operation with crude oil processing surging 3.5 mb/d from March to July according to IEA projections

 

Ch2: European refining margins hitting $6/b as global refining is currently reduced

Likely to fall back again as refining activity revives

 

Ch3: Deepening discount for Dated Brent crude versus Brent crude 1 mth contract

As crude fundamentals weakened as refineries refined less due to maintenance

 

Ch4: The spread was on average zero until the market ran into solid, global surplus of crude in mid-2014 onwards

Has been trending towards a discount of only -$0.6/b in Q1-17 but has now recently expanded again towards -$1/b

 

Ch5: As far as we can see crude oil on ships in transit (or standing still) is not really bloated

Rather this amount has been declining some 50 million barrels since a peak of more than 200 mb in mid-March

 

Ch6: At least Iran?s floating storage volume now seems to have been drawn down to zero

The constant draining of this volume has most likely been a bearish oil market factor during the draining period. No more.

 

Ch6: US crude + gasoline + distillate stocks in solid, steady decline since mid-February declining 29 mb

 

Ch5 ? This is also reflected in global weekly inventory data

 

Ch6: Strongly reviving US crude production is of course a headache for the market

In its April edition of the Short Term Energy Outlook the EIA projects US production to hit 9.6 mb/d (the previous peak) in Nov/Dec 2017.

In its March report the IEA projected that this would happen in Feb 2018

Thus continued on-boarding of US shale oil rigs continues to shift the crossover date for previous peak revisit closer and closer in time.

SEB estimates are that this will happen already in October 2017. The linear trend in the weekly data however points to June/July.

 

Ch7: Crude oil spot prices currently low partly due front end contango

Reduction of front end contango alone will help to lift the Brent crude 1mth contract

Kind regards Bjarne Schieldrop Chief analyst, Commodities SEB Markets









SE Banken

Dessa rekommendationer skall inte ses som någon modellportfölj utan som generella riktlinjer i aktier som givit tekniska signaler. Hur man vill använda dessa signaler är upp till var och en. Några av er läsare kanske bara har en portfölj med innehav och använder köpsignalerna till att köpa och säljsignalerna till att ta hem vinst. Andra kanske använder signalerna som underlag för trading med både köp och blankning. En annan strategi är att försöka bedöma vart OMX-index är på väg och sedan favorisera signaler i samma riktning. Alla har olika uppfattningar om var börsen är på väg. Av denna förklaring försöker vi komma med publikationer innehållandes säljsignaler även om vi själva tror att börsen är på väg upp, och vice versa.

Disclaimer Axiers publikationer skall endast ses som generella kommentarer om marknaden och inte som rekommendationer att köpa eller sälja finansiella värdepapper. Axier tar inte ansvar för varken direkta eller indirekta finansiella skador som uppstår vid användning av dessa publikationer.

Analyser av råvaror

Bjarne: Crude oil comment – Physical crude weakness_in_the_shoulder_months_soon_to_end : 2017-04-21

Råvaror: Olja, guld mm


Ikon analys

Crude oil comment ? Physical crude weakness in the shoulder months soon to end

The spread between the Brent crude dated price and the front month Brent contract has been on a steady tightening path since early November last year. In 2015 the spread averaged -$1.4/b, in 2016 it averaged -$1/b and year to date it has averaged -$0.6/b with a steady tightening trend. Since early April however the spread has deepened to -$0.9/b and at times traded lower than -$1/b in a sign of surplus crude oil in the oil market. This does have an impact on the market. It does give an impression of a growing surplus of weakening fundamentals. And as such it has helped to catalyze the sell-off in crude oil prices this week. However we do believe that the weakness is more a sign of shoulder month dynamics and refinery maintenance rather than a sign of a growing surplus. At the start of the year the body of global refineries out for maintenance stood at 18 mb/d versus an average of 19.4 mb/d on average for 2016. Since the start of February the outage has averaged 23 mb/d and rose to a recent peak of 24.7 mb/d of maintenance in early April. This naturally leads to much less crude oil processing which again leads to a temporary surplus of crude oil and a comparable deficit in products. This should naturally lead to improving refining margins for the refineries which are still refining and that is exactly what we see. The European spot refining crack margin last year averaged $3/b per processed barrel of crude. Year to date it has averaged $4.3/b. Since the start of April it has averaged $5.3/b and now it stands at $6/b. Clearly refineries are out, margins are up, product supplies are tightening, crude fundamentals are weakening. And there you are, shoulder months weakness. In the mid between winter and summer demand. It often creates a lot of uncertainties about the fundamental situation and thus fluctuating prices.

 

However, if we look at inventories of both crude and products (in available weekly data) there has been a steady decline since mid-February. US crude + disstillates + gasoline stocks have declined 29 mb or 3.2 mb/week since mid February. Inventories in global weekly data have declined 26 mb since mid-February with an average decline of 2.6 mb/week. Now refineries are moving back on line after maintenance. The IEA expects global refinery crude oil demand to surge by 3.5 mb/d from March to July primarily driven by rising refinery activity in the Atlantic Basin and the Middle East. Thus we do expect the current crude oil weakness to be transitory and thus that the current depressed dated Brent spot price versus the 1mth Brent crude oil contract to firm in not too long. Actually, the body of refineries out for maintenance seems to be falling fast according to Bloomberg data.

 

Ahead we have the OPEC meeting in Vienna on May 25th. In general we do not expect OPEC to roll over H1-17 cuts into H2 since we don?t see a need for it and since we also think it creates a risk for yet more stimulus of the US shale oil sector which might make it more difficult for OPEC to re-enter the market again with its full volume at a later stage. That is of course unless declines in non-OPEC, non-US shale makes increasing room for such a re-entry of OPEC supplies at a later stage. We do think that that will actually be the case in 2019. We do however expect OPEC to come out with a coherent message. To appear as a unified group. Also, we do think that the message from OPEC will be a reasurance that they will not flood the market with crude oil with no limit and no controll of the situation. That is the assurance the market needs in order to avoid sub-$50/b Brent crude oil prices in H2-17.

 

We think it is a good idea to buy into the current sell-off and sit long into the refinery revival and likely tightening crude oil market which that will lead to. Also in just over a months time we?ll have the OPEC meeting. The market may trade cautiously ahead of the meeting in case the message from the meeting is a total dissapointment with dissintegration of cooperation. However, a relief rally is likely post the meeting as OPEC is likely to come out with some kind of reasuring message if not direct cuts so at least some tempered production stand. The current sell-off could however continue further down towards the $50/b line as net long specultive positions are still elevated with investors taking cover against what appears as weak crude fundamentals as well as uncertain OPEC meeting ahead.

 

Ch1: Global refinery maintenance probably peaked in early April

Refineries are now moving back into operation with crude oil processing surging 3.5 mb/d from March to July according to IEA projections

 

Ch2: European refining margins hitting $6/b as global refining is currently reduced

Likely to fall back again as refining activity revives

 

Ch3: Deepening discount for Dated Brent crude versus Brent crude 1 mth contract

As crude fundamentals weakened as refineries refined less due to maintenance

 

Ch4: The spread was on average zero until the market ran into solid, global surplus of crude in mid-2014 onwards

Has been trending towards a discount of only -$0.6/b in Q1-17 but has now recently expanded again towards -$1/b

 

Ch5: As far as we can see crude oil on ships in transit (or standing still) is not really bloated

Rather this amount has been declining some 50 million barrels since a peak of more than 200 mb in mid-March

 

Ch6: At least Iran?s floating storage volume now seems to have been drawn down to zero

The constant draining of this volume has most likely been a bearish oil market factor during the draining period. No more.

 

Ch6: US crude + gasoline + distillate stocks in solid, steady decline since mid-February declining 29 mb

 

Ch5 ? This is also reflected in global weekly inventory data

 

Ch6: Strongly reviving US crude production is of course a headache for the market

In its April edition of the Short Term Energy Outlook the EIA projects US production to hit 9.6 mb/d (the previous peak) in Nov/Dec 2017.

In its March report the IEA projected that this would happen in Feb 2018

Thus continued on-boarding of US shale oil rigs continues to shift the crossover date for previous peak revisit closer and closer in time.

SEB estimates are that this will happen already in October 2017. The linear trend in the weekly data however points to June/July.

 

Ch7: Crude oil spot prices currently low partly due front end contango

Reduction of front end contango alone will help to lift the Brent crude 1mth contract

Kind regards Bjarne Schieldrop Chief analyst, Commodities SEB Markets









SE Banken

Dessa rekommendationer skall inte ses som någon modellportfölj utan som generella riktlinjer i aktier som givit tekniska signaler. Hur man vill använda dessa signaler är upp till var och en. Några av er läsare kanske bara har en portfölj med innehav och använder köpsignalerna till att köpa och säljsignalerna till att ta hem vinst. Andra kanske använder signalerna som underlag för trading med både köp och blankning. En annan strategi är att försöka bedöma vart OMX-index är på väg och sedan favorisera signaler i samma riktning. Alla har olika uppfattningar om var börsen är på väg. Av denna förklaring försöker vi komma med publikationer innehållandes säljsignaler även om vi själva tror att börsen är på väg upp, och vice versa.

Disclaimer Axiers publikationer skall endast ses som generella kommentarer om marknaden och inte som rekommendationer att köpa eller sälja finansiella värdepapper. Axier tar inte ansvar för varken direkta eller indirekta finansiella skador som uppstår vid användning av dessa publikationer.

Valutaanalys

Bjarne: Crude oil comment – Physical crude weakness_in_the_shoulder_months_soon_to_end : 2017-04-21

Råvaror: Olja, guld mm


Ikon analys

Crude oil comment ? Physical crude weakness in the shoulder months soon to end

The spread between the Brent crude dated price and the front month Brent contract has been on a steady tightening path since early November last year. In 2015 the spread averaged -$1.4/b, in 2016 it averaged -$1/b and year to date it has averaged -$0.6/b with a steady tightening trend. Since early April however the spread has deepened to -$0.9/b and at times traded lower than -$1/b in a sign of surplus crude oil in the oil market. This does have an impact on the market. It does give an impression of a growing surplus of weakening fundamentals. And as such it has helped to catalyze the sell-off in crude oil prices this week. However we do believe that the weakness is more a sign of shoulder month dynamics and refinery maintenance rather than a sign of a growing surplus. At the start of the year the body of global refineries out for maintenance stood at 18 mb/d versus an average of 19.4 mb/d on average for 2016. Since the start of February the outage has averaged 23 mb/d and rose to a recent peak of 24.7 mb/d of maintenance in early April. This naturally leads to much less crude oil processing which again leads to a temporary surplus of crude oil and a comparable deficit in products. This should naturally lead to improving refining margins for the refineries which are still refining and that is exactly what we see. The European spot refining crack margin last year averaged $3/b per processed barrel of crude. Year to date it has averaged $4.3/b. Since the start of April it has averaged $5.3/b and now it stands at $6/b. Clearly refineries are out, margins are up, product supplies are tightening, crude fundamentals are weakening. And there you are, shoulder months weakness. In the mid between winter and summer demand. It often creates a lot of uncertainties about the fundamental situation and thus fluctuating prices.

 

However, if we look at inventories of both crude and products (in available weekly data) there has been a steady decline since mid-February. US crude + disstillates + gasoline stocks have declined 29 mb or 3.2 mb/week since mid February. Inventories in global weekly data have declined 26 mb since mid-February with an average decline of 2.6 mb/week. Now refineries are moving back on line after maintenance. The IEA expects global refinery crude oil demand to surge by 3.5 mb/d from March to July primarily driven by rising refinery activity in the Atlantic Basin and the Middle East. Thus we do expect the current crude oil weakness to be transitory and thus that the current depressed dated Brent spot price versus the 1mth Brent crude oil contract to firm in not too long. Actually, the body of refineries out for maintenance seems to be falling fast according to Bloomberg data.

 

Ahead we have the OPEC meeting in Vienna on May 25th. In general we do not expect OPEC to roll over H1-17 cuts into H2 since we don?t see a need for it and since we also think it creates a risk for yet more stimulus of the US shale oil sector which might make it more difficult for OPEC to re-enter the market again with its full volume at a later stage. That is of course unless declines in non-OPEC, non-US shale makes increasing room for such a re-entry of OPEC supplies at a later stage. We do think that that will actually be the case in 2019. We do however expect OPEC to come out with a coherent message. To appear as a unified group. Also, we do think that the message from OPEC will be a reasurance that they will not flood the market with crude oil with no limit and no controll of the situation. That is the assurance the market needs in order to avoid sub-$50/b Brent crude oil prices in H2-17.

 

We think it is a good idea to buy into the current sell-off and sit long into the refinery revival and likely tightening crude oil market which that will lead to. Also in just over a months time we?ll have the OPEC meeting. The market may trade cautiously ahead of the meeting in case the message from the meeting is a total dissapointment with dissintegration of cooperation. However, a relief rally is likely post the meeting as OPEC is likely to come out with some kind of reasuring message if not direct cuts so at least some tempered production stand. The current sell-off could however continue further down towards the $50/b line as net long specultive positions are still elevated with investors taking cover against what appears as weak crude fundamentals as well as uncertain OPEC meeting ahead.

 

Ch1: Global refinery maintenance probably peaked in early April

Refineries are now moving back into operation with crude oil processing surging 3.5 mb/d from March to July according to IEA projections

 

Ch2: European refining margins hitting $6/b as global refining is currently reduced

Likely to fall back again as refining activity revives

 

Ch3: Deepening discount for Dated Brent crude versus Brent crude 1 mth contract

As crude fundamentals weakened as refineries refined less due to maintenance

 

Ch4: The spread was on average zero until the market ran into solid, global surplus of crude in mid-2014 onwards

Has been trending towards a discount of only -$0.6/b in Q1-17 but has now recently expanded again towards -$1/b

 

Ch5: As far as we can see crude oil on ships in transit (or standing still) is not really bloated

Rather this amount has been declining some 50 million barrels since a peak of more than 200 mb in mid-March

 

Ch6: At least Iran?s floating storage volume now seems to have been drawn down to zero

The constant draining of this volume has most likely been a bearish oil market factor during the draining period. No more.

 

Ch6: US crude + gasoline + distillate stocks in solid, steady decline since mid-February declining 29 mb

 

Ch5 ? This is also reflected in global weekly inventory data

 

Ch6: Strongly reviving US crude production is of course a headache for the market

In its April edition of the Short Term Energy Outlook the EIA projects US production to hit 9.6 mb/d (the previous peak) in Nov/Dec 2017.

In its March report the IEA projected that this would happen in Feb 2018

Thus continued on-boarding of US shale oil rigs continues to shift the crossover date for previous peak revisit closer and closer in time.

SEB estimates are that this will happen already in October 2017. The linear trend in the weekly data however points to June/July.

 

Ch7: Crude oil spot prices currently low partly due front end contango

Reduction of front end contango alone will help to lift the Brent crude 1mth contract

Kind regards Bjarne Schieldrop Chief analyst, Commodities SEB Markets









SE Banken

Dessa rekommendationer skall inte ses som någon modellportfölj utan som generella riktlinjer i aktier som givit tekniska signaler. Hur man vill använda dessa signaler är upp till var och en. Några av er läsare kanske bara har en portfölj med innehav och använder köpsignalerna till att köpa och säljsignalerna till att ta hem vinst. Andra kanske använder signalerna som underlag för trading med både köp och blankning. En annan strategi är att försöka bedöma vart OMX-index är på väg och sedan favorisera signaler i samma riktning. Alla har olika uppfattningar om var börsen är på väg. Av denna förklaring försöker vi komma med publikationer innehållandes säljsignaler även om vi själva tror att börsen är på väg upp, och vice versa.

Disclaimer Axiers publikationer skall endast ses som generella kommentarer om marknaden och inte som rekommendationer att köpa eller sälja finansiella värdepapper. Axier tar inte ansvar för varken direkta eller indirekta finansiella skador som uppstår vid användning av dessa publikationer.

De mest populära analyserna

Bjarne: Crude oil comment – Physical crude weakness_in_the_shoulder_months_soon_to_end : 2017-04-21

Råvaror: Olja, guld mm


Ikon analys

Crude oil comment ? Physical crude weakness in the shoulder months soon to end

The spread between the Brent crude dated price and the front month Brent contract has been on a steady tightening path since early November last year. In 2015 the spread averaged -$1.4/b, in 2016 it averaged -$1/b and year to date it has averaged -$0.6/b with a steady tightening trend. Since early April however the spread has deepened to -$0.9/b and at times traded lower than -$1/b in a sign of surplus crude oil in the oil market. This does have an impact on the market. It does give an impression of a growing surplus of weakening fundamentals. And as such it has helped to catalyze the sell-off in crude oil prices this week. However we do believe that the weakness is more a sign of shoulder month dynamics and refinery maintenance rather than a sign of a growing surplus. At the start of the year the body of global refineries out for maintenance stood at 18 mb/d versus an average of 19.4 mb/d on average for 2016. Since the start of February the outage has averaged 23 mb/d and rose to a recent peak of 24.7 mb/d of maintenance in early April. This naturally leads to much less crude oil processing which again leads to a temporary surplus of crude oil and a comparable deficit in products. This should naturally lead to improving refining margins for the refineries which are still refining and that is exactly what we see. The European spot refining crack margin last year averaged $3/b per processed barrel of crude. Year to date it has averaged $4.3/b. Since the start of April it has averaged $5.3/b and now it stands at $6/b. Clearly refineries are out, margins are up, product supplies are tightening, crude fundamentals are weakening. And there you are, shoulder months weakness. In the mid between winter and summer demand. It often creates a lot of uncertainties about the fundamental situation and thus fluctuating prices.

 

However, if we look at inventories of both crude and products (in available weekly data) there has been a steady decline since mid-February. US crude + disstillates + gasoline stocks have declined 29 mb or 3.2 mb/week since mid February. Inventories in global weekly data have declined 26 mb since mid-February with an average decline of 2.6 mb/week. Now refineries are moving back on line after maintenance. The IEA expects global refinery crude oil demand to surge by 3.5 mb/d from March to July primarily driven by rising refinery activity in the Atlantic Basin and the Middle East. Thus we do expect the current crude oil weakness to be transitory and thus that the current depressed dated Brent spot price versus the 1mth Brent crude oil contract to firm in not too long. Actually, the body of refineries out for maintenance seems to be falling fast according to Bloomberg data.

 

Ahead we have the OPEC meeting in Vienna on May 25th. In general we do not expect OPEC to roll over H1-17 cuts into H2 since we don?t see a need for it and since we also think it creates a risk for yet more stimulus of the US shale oil sector which might make it more difficult for OPEC to re-enter the market again with its full volume at a later stage. That is of course unless declines in non-OPEC, non-US shale makes increasing room for such a re-entry of OPEC supplies at a later stage. We do think that that will actually be the case in 2019. We do however expect OPEC to come out with a coherent message. To appear as a unified group. Also, we do think that the message from OPEC will be a reasurance that they will not flood the market with crude oil with no limit and no controll of the situation. That is the assurance the market needs in order to avoid sub-$50/b Brent crude oil prices in H2-17.

 

We think it is a good idea to buy into the current sell-off and sit long into the refinery revival and likely tightening crude oil market which that will lead to. Also in just over a months time we?ll have the OPEC meeting. The market may trade cautiously ahead of the meeting in case the message from the meeting is a total dissapointment with dissintegration of cooperation. However, a relief rally is likely post the meeting as OPEC is likely to come out with some kind of reasuring message if not direct cuts so at least some tempered production stand. The current sell-off could however continue further down towards the $50/b line as net long specultive positions are still elevated with investors taking cover against what appears as weak crude fundamentals as well as uncertain OPEC meeting ahead.

 

Ch1: Global refinery maintenance probably peaked in early April

Refineries are now moving back into operation with crude oil processing surging 3.5 mb/d from March to July according to IEA projections

 

Ch2: European refining margins hitting $6/b as global refining is currently reduced

Likely to fall back again as refining activity revives

 

Ch3: Deepening discount for Dated Brent crude versus Brent crude 1 mth contract

As crude fundamentals weakened as refineries refined less due to maintenance

 

Ch4: The spread was on average zero until the market ran into solid, global surplus of crude in mid-2014 onwards

Has been trending towards a discount of only -$0.6/b in Q1-17 but has now recently expanded again towards -$1/b

 

Ch5: As far as we can see crude oil on ships in transit (or standing still) is not really bloated

Rather this amount has been declining some 50 million barrels since a peak of more than 200 mb in mid-March

 

Ch6: At least Iran?s floating storage volume now seems to have been drawn down to zero

The constant draining of this volume has most likely been a bearish oil market factor during the draining period. No more.

 

Ch6: US crude + gasoline + distillate stocks in solid, steady decline since mid-February declining 29 mb

 

Ch5 ? This is also reflected in global weekly inventory data

 

Ch6: Strongly reviving US crude production is of course a headache for the market

In its April edition of the Short Term Energy Outlook the EIA projects US production to hit 9.6 mb/d (the previous peak) in Nov/Dec 2017.

In its March report the IEA projected that this would happen in Feb 2018

Thus continued on-boarding of US shale oil rigs continues to shift the crossover date for previous peak revisit closer and closer in time.

SEB estimates are that this will happen already in October 2017. The linear trend in the weekly data however points to June/July.

 

Ch7: Crude oil spot prices currently low partly due front end contango

Reduction of front end contango alone will help to lift the Brent crude 1mth contract

Kind regards Bjarne Schieldrop Chief analyst, Commodities SEB Markets









SE Banken

Dessa rekommendationer skall inte ses som någon modellportfölj utan som generella riktlinjer i aktier som givit tekniska signaler. Hur man vill använda dessa signaler är upp till var och en. Några av er läsare kanske bara har en portfölj med innehav och använder köpsignalerna till att köpa och säljsignalerna till att ta hem vinst. Andra kanske använder signalerna som underlag för trading med både köp och blankning. En annan strategi är att försöka bedöma vart OMX-index är på väg och sedan favorisera signaler i samma riktning. Alla har olika uppfattningar om var börsen är på väg. Av denna förklaring försöker vi komma med publikationer innehållandes säljsignaler även om vi själva tror att börsen är på väg upp, och vice versa.

Disclaimer Axiers publikationer skall endast ses som generella kommentarer om marknaden och inte som rekommendationer att köpa eller sälja finansiella värdepapper. Axier tar inte ansvar för varken direkta eller indirekta finansiella skador som uppstår vid användning av dessa publikationer.

Övriga Analyser

Bjarne: Crude oil comment – Physical crude weakness_in_the_shoulder_months_soon_to_end : 2017-04-21

Råvaror: Olja, guld mm


Ikon analys

Crude oil comment ? Physical crude weakness in the shoulder months soon to end

The spread between the Brent crude dated price and the front month Brent contract has been on a steady tightening path since early November last year. In 2015 the spread averaged -$1.4/b, in 2016 it averaged -$1/b and year to date it has averaged -$0.6/b with a steady tightening trend. Since early April however the spread has deepened to -$0.9/b and at times traded lower than -$1/b in a sign of surplus crude oil in the oil market. This does have an impact on the market. It does give an impression of a growing surplus of weakening fundamentals. And as such it has helped to catalyze the sell-off in crude oil prices this week. However we do believe that the weakness is more a sign of shoulder month dynamics and refinery maintenance rather than a sign of a growing surplus. At the start of the year the body of global refineries out for maintenance stood at 18 mb/d versus an average of 19.4 mb/d on average for 2016. Since the start of February the outage has averaged 23 mb/d and rose to a recent peak of 24.7 mb/d of maintenance in early April. This naturally leads to much less crude oil processing which again leads to a temporary surplus of crude oil and a comparable deficit in products. This should naturally lead to improving refining margins for the refineries which are still refining and that is exactly what we see. The European spot refining crack margin last year averaged $3/b per processed barrel of crude. Year to date it has averaged $4.3/b. Since the start of April it has averaged $5.3/b and now it stands at $6/b. Clearly refineries are out, margins are up, product supplies are tightening, crude fundamentals are weakening. And there you are, shoulder months weakness. In the mid between winter and summer demand. It often creates a lot of uncertainties about the fundamental situation and thus fluctuating prices.

 

However, if we look at inventories of both crude and products (in available weekly data) there has been a steady decline since mid-February. US crude + disstillates + gasoline stocks have declined 29 mb or 3.2 mb/week since mid February. Inventories in global weekly data have declined 26 mb since mid-February with an average decline of 2.6 mb/week. Now refineries are moving back on line after maintenance. The IEA expects global refinery crude oil demand to surge by 3.5 mb/d from March to July primarily driven by rising refinery activity in the Atlantic Basin and the Middle East. Thus we do expect the current crude oil weakness to be transitory and thus that the current depressed dated Brent spot price versus the 1mth Brent crude oil contract to firm in not too long. Actually, the body of refineries out for maintenance seems to be falling fast according to Bloomberg data.

 

Ahead we have the OPEC meeting in Vienna on May 25th. In general we do not expect OPEC to roll over H1-17 cuts into H2 since we don?t see a need for it and since we also think it creates a risk for yet more stimulus of the US shale oil sector which might make it more difficult for OPEC to re-enter the market again with its full volume at a later stage. That is of course unless declines in non-OPEC, non-US shale makes increasing room for such a re-entry of OPEC supplies at a later stage. We do think that that will actually be the case in 2019. We do however expect OPEC to come out with a coherent message. To appear as a unified group. Also, we do think that the message from OPEC will be a reasurance that they will not flood the market with crude oil with no limit and no controll of the situation. That is the assurance the market needs in order to avoid sub-$50/b Brent crude oil prices in H2-17.

 

We think it is a good idea to buy into the current sell-off and sit long into the refinery revival and likely tightening crude oil market which that will lead to. Also in just over a months time we?ll have the OPEC meeting. The market may trade cautiously ahead of the meeting in case the message from the meeting is a total dissapointment with dissintegration of cooperation. However, a relief rally is likely post the meeting as OPEC is likely to come out with some kind of reasuring message if not direct cuts so at least some tempered production stand. The current sell-off could however continue further down towards the $50/b line as net long specultive positions are still elevated with investors taking cover against what appears as weak crude fundamentals as well as uncertain OPEC meeting ahead.

 

Ch1: Global refinery maintenance probably peaked in early April

Refineries are now moving back into operation with crude oil processing surging 3.5 mb/d from March to July according to IEA projections

 

Ch2: European refining margins hitting $6/b as global refining is currently reduced

Likely to fall back again as refining activity revives

 

Ch3: Deepening discount for Dated Brent crude versus Brent crude 1 mth contract

As crude fundamentals weakened as refineries refined less due to maintenance

 

Ch4: The spread was on average zero until the market ran into solid, global surplus of crude in mid-2014 onwards

Has been trending towards a discount of only -$0.6/b in Q1-17 but has now recently expanded again towards -$1/b

 

Ch5: As far as we can see crude oil on ships in transit (or standing still) is not really bloated

Rather this amount has been declining some 50 million barrels since a peak of more than 200 mb in mid-March

 

Ch6: At least Iran?s floating storage volume now seems to have been drawn down to zero

The constant draining of this volume has most likely been a bearish oil market factor during the draining period. No more.

 

Ch6: US crude + gasoline + distillate stocks in solid, steady decline since mid-February declining 29 mb

 

Ch5 ? This is also reflected in global weekly inventory data

 

Ch6: Strongly reviving US crude production is of course a headache for the market

In its April edition of the Short Term Energy Outlook the EIA projects US production to hit 9.6 mb/d (the previous peak) in Nov/Dec 2017.

In its March report the IEA projected that this would happen in Feb 2018

Thus continued on-boarding of US shale oil rigs continues to shift the crossover date for previous peak revisit closer and closer in time.

SEB estimates are that this will happen already in October 2017. The linear trend in the weekly data however points to June/July.

 

Ch7: Crude oil spot prices currently low partly due front end contango

Reduction of front end contango alone will help to lift the Brent crude 1mth contract

Kind regards Bjarne Schieldrop Chief analyst, Commodities SEB Markets









SE Banken

Dessa rekommendationer skall inte ses som någon modellportfölj utan som generella riktlinjer i aktier som givit tekniska signaler. Hur man vill använda dessa signaler är upp till var och en. Några av er läsare kanske bara har en portfölj med innehav och använder köpsignalerna till att köpa och säljsignalerna till att ta hem vinst. Andra kanske använder signalerna som underlag för trading med både köp och blankning. En annan strategi är att försöka bedöma vart OMX-index är på väg och sedan favorisera signaler i samma riktning. Alla har olika uppfattningar om var börsen är på väg. Av denna förklaring försöker vi komma med publikationer innehållandes säljsignaler även om vi själva tror att börsen är på väg upp, och vice versa.

Disclaimer Axiers publikationer skall endast ses som generella kommentarer om marknaden och inte som rekommendationer att köpa eller sälja finansiella värdepapper. Axier tar inte ansvar för varken direkta eller indirekta finansiella skador som uppstår vid användning av dessa publikationer.

EFN TV

EFN:s Makromorgon med Claes Måhlén, chefsstrateg, Pierre Carlsson, strateg, och Andreas Skogelid, räntestrateg, på Handelsbanken Capital Markets. De kommenterar viktiga makrohändelser och går igenom dagens agenda.

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Just nu har vi priser för ett antal valutor, men vi kommer kontinuerligt att utöka utbudet.

AUDCAD

 

Kom ihåg att CFD:er är en produkt med hävstångseffekt, vilket kan innebära att du kan förlora hela det insatta beloppet. Att handla med CFD:er kanske inte passar för dig. Därför ska du se till att du förstår de risker som det innebär.

Disclaimer
Aktier, valutor eller andra finansiella instrument är alltid förknippat med risk. Se nedan i realtid hur valutakursen har utvecklats. Observera att diagrammet kommer från CFD-handlaren Plus500 och därför kan skilja sig en del från kurserna på valutamarknaden.

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Priser på marknadens råvaror. Nedan hittar du separata sidor med priser för respektive råvara. Senaste kurs och diagram över historiska priser för olika tidshorisonter.

Just nu har vi priser för ett mindre antal råvaror, men vi kommer kontinuerligt att utöka utbudet.

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Guldterminer går till leverans varje månad året om. Metallen handlas bland annat på New York Mercantile Exchange under tickersymbolen GC och huvudkontraktet prissätts i USD och cent per troy ounce.

 

Kom ihåg att CFD:er är en produkt med hävstångseffekt, vilket kan innebära att du kan förlora hela det insatta beloppet. Att handla med CFD:er kanske inte passar för dig. Därför ska du se till att du förstår de risker som det innebär.

Välj råvara

Ädelmetaller

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Jordbruk

Basmetaller

Disclaimer
Aktier, valutor eller andra finansiella instrument är alltid förknippat med risk. Se nedan i realtid hur valutakursen har utvecklats. Observera att diagrammet kommer från CFD-handlaren Plus500 och därför kan skilja sig en del från kurserna på valutamarknaden.

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Samtliga dessa börshandlade fonder kan handlas genom både Nordnet och Avanza.

CurrencyShares Euro ETF (NYSEArca: FXE)

Denna börshandlade fond replikerar kursutvecklingen för valutaparet USDEUR. Andelarna i denna ETF skall göra det möjligt för institutionella och privata investerare att med ett enkelt, kostnadseffektivt sätt att vinna investeringsfördelar som liknar dem som de skulle erhållit om de köpte euro mot dollar.

 

Kom ihåg att CFD:er är en produkt med hävstångseffekt, vilket kan innebära att du kan förlora hela det insatta beloppet. Att handla med CFD:er kanske inte passar för dig. Därför ska du se till att du förstår de risker som det innebär.

Kursgrafer Index

Börsindex från hela världen. Nedan hittar du separata sidor med priser för respektive index. Senaste kurs och diagram över historiska priser för olika tidshorisonter.

Just nu har vi priser för ett mindre antal index upplagda, men vi kommer kontinuerligt att utöka utbudet på de olika indexen.

Australien ASX 200

S&P/ASX 200 index är ett marknadsviktat index, justerar för floaten som mäter utvecklingen på den australiensiska aktiemarknaden. Indexet beräknas av Standard & Poors. Indexets startdatum är den 31 mars 2000 då den hade värdet 3 133,3.

 

Kom ihåg att CFD:er är en produkt med hävstångseffekt, vilket kan innebära att du kan förlora hela det insatta beloppet. Att handla med CFD:er kanske inte passar för dig. Därför ska du se till att du förstår de risker som det innebär.